The global economy is facing a serious recession due to COVID-19, with implications for CO₂ emissions. Here, using a global adaptive multiregional input–output model and scenarios of lockdown and fiscal counter measures, we show that global emissions from economic sectors will decrease by 3.9 to 5.6% in 5 years (2020 to 2024) compared with a no-pandemic baseline scenario (business as usual for economic growth and carbon intensity decline). Global economic interdependency via supply chains means that blocking one country’s economic activities causes the emissions of other countries to decrease even without lockdown policies. Supply-chain effects contributed 90.1% of emissions decline from power production in 2020 but only 13.6% of transport sector reductions. Simulations of follow-up fiscal stimuli in 41 major countries increase global 5-yr emissions by −6.6 to 23.2 Gt (−4.7 to 16.4%), depending on the strength and structure of incentives. Therefore, smart policy is needed to turn pandemic-related emission declines into firm climate action.

由于COVID-19，全球经济正面临严重衰退，这对CO ₂产生了影响排放。在这里，我们使用全球自适应多区域投入产出模型以及锁定和财政对策的情景，表明与无大流行的基线相比，经济部门的全球排放量在5年（2020年至2024年）中将减少3.9％至5.6％。情景（经济增长和碳强度下降的照常营业）。通过供应链实现的全球经济相互依存意味着，即使没有锁定政策，阻止一个国家​​的经济活动也会导致其他国家的排放减少。供应链效应在2020年的电力生产中贡献了90.1％的排放量减少，但仅占运输部门减少量的13.6％。在41个主要国家/地区进行的后续财政刺激措施模拟显示，全球5年排放量增加了-6.6至23.2 Gt（-4.7至16.4％），取决于激励的强度和结构。因此，需要采取明智的政策，将与大流行相关的排放量减少转化为坚定的气候行动。