Accurate prediction of tunnel convergence is important to ensure the stability of tunnel structures. Reliability analysis of tunnel convergence on spatially variable soils was performed based on Monte Carlo simulations. The Young’s modulus of soils was shown to be spatially varied. The influence of the coefficient of variation, the vertical scale of fluctuation and the distribution type (i.e. beta distribution, gamma distribution and lognormal distribution) of soils on the tunnel convergence were systematically discussed. From measuring the mean and standard deviation of tunnel convergence, and the probability of exceeding some thresholds, it was found that the distribution type significantly influenced the results. The results were accompanied by a detailed analysis of the mechanisms of tunnel convergence in spatially random soils.

隧道收敛的准确预测对于确保隧道结构的稳定性至关重要。基于蒙特卡洛模拟，对空间可变土壤上隧道收敛的可靠性进行了分析。土壤的杨氏模量显示为空间变化的。系统地讨论了变异系数，波动的垂直尺度和土壤分布类型（即β分布，γ分布和对数正态分布）对隧道收敛的影响。通过测量隧道收敛的平均值和标准偏差，以及超过某些阈值的可能性，发现分布类型显着影响结果。结果伴随着对空间随机土壤中隧道收敛机理的详细分析。