The projected loss of millions of square kilometres of natural ecosystems to meet future demand for food, animal feed, fibre and bioenergy crops is likely to massively escalate threats to biodiversity. Reducing these threats requires a detailed knowledge of how and where they are likely to be most severe. We developed a geographically explicit model of future agricultural land clearance based on observed historical changes, and combined the outputs with species-specific habitat preferences for 19,859 species of terrestrial vertebrates. We project that 87.7% of these species will lose habitat to agricultural expansion by 2050, with 1,280 species projected to lose ≥25% of their habitat. Proactive policies targeting how, where, and what food is produced could reduce these threats, with a combination of approaches potentially preventing almost all these losses while contributing to healthier human diets. As international biodiversity targets are set to be updated in 2021, these results highlight the importance of proactive efforts to safeguard biodiversity by reducing demand for agricultural land.

为满足未来对粮食，动物饲料，纤维和生物能源作物的需求，预计将损失数百万平方公里的自然生态系统，这可能会大大加剧对生物多样性的威胁。减少这些威胁需要详细了解如何以及在何处可能最严重。我们根据观察到的历史变化开发了未来农业土地清理的地理显式模型，并将输出结果与针对19,859种陆生脊椎动物的特定物种栖息地偏好相结合。我们预计，到2050年，其中87.7％的物种将因农业扩张而失去栖息地，预计1,280种物种将丧失其栖息地的≥25％。针对生产方式，地点和粮食生产的积极政策可以减少这些威胁，结合多种方法可预防几乎所有这些损失，同时有助于人类饮食更健康。随着国际生物多样性目标定于2021年更新，这些结果凸显了积极努力通过减少农业用地需求来保护生物多样性的重要性。