Abstract

The potential to diagnose the beginning of the solar cycle based on the detection of small-scale magnetic formations, the magnetic nodes of ephemeral active regions in the zone of mid-heliolatitudes from 40° to 60°, has been studied. Magnetic nodes were detected at the stage of their emergence by the multifractal segmentation method, which was previously used to fix new magnetic fluxes of active regions in the zone of low heliolatitudes. Statistical estimates of the number of magnetic nodes recorded by this method were performed based on magnetograph data from the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun of the National Solar Observatory (SOLIS NSO) for the 24th solar activity cycle, as well as for the beginning of the 25th activity cycle. A precursor of solar cycle 24 has been found in the form of a burst in the number of magnetic nodes in 2007–2008 that significantly exceeds the background value characteristic of the period 2011–2015. Two years later, the first active regions began to appear at latitudes of 30° ± 10°. A similar sequence of phases in the beginning of the cycle was found for cycle 25. Unlike the situation with solar cycle 24, the mass appearance of high-latitude active regions of cycle 25 occurred about 2.5 years after the burst in the number of nodes of ephemeral active regions.

中文翻译：

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基于太阳系周期25的先兆在中高纬度地区进行诊断的可能性

摘要

研究了基于探测小规模磁层（中度纬度40°至60°区域中短暂活动区域的磁结）来诊断太阳周期开始的潜力。通过多重分形分割方法，可以在磁节点出现的阶段检测到磁节点，该方法以前用于固定低纬度区域中活动区域的新磁通量。根据该方法记录的磁结数的统计估算是根据来自国家太阳观测台（SOLIS NSO）的太阳天气光学长期观测在第24个太阳活动周期以及对第24个太阳活动周期的磁图数据进行的第25个活动周期的开始。发现太阳周期24的前兆是在2007-2008年期间磁节点数量突然爆发的形式，大大超过了2011-2015年期间的背景值特征。两年后，第一个活动区域开始出现在30°±10°的纬度上。在周期25的周期开始时发现了相似的相序。与太阳周期24的情况不同，周期25的高纬度活动区的质量出现发生在节点数量突然爆发后约2.5年。短暂活动区域。