Abstract

Predicting establishment and invasiveness risks of non-native (NN) species are fundamental aspects in the development of preventing measures and management plans. The main aim of the present study was to identify potential establishment rate and invasive of NN fish species using the Freshwater Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) and climate matching model (CLIMATCH) respectively. The Anzali Wetland Complex (AWC) was selected as risk assessment (RA) area which is located in the southern Caspian Sea basin. Overall, fifteen NN fish species were assessed in the RA area. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve showed that the two models identified reliably high potential establishment rate and invasive NN fishes in the RA area. FISK and CLIMATCH were calibrated to produce RA area-specific threshold values. The threshold values were 11 and 0.87 for FISK and CLIMATCH, respectively. FISK and CLIMATCH categorized 73.3 and 60% of NN fish species as high invasive risk and high probability of establishment, respectively. Six out of 15 NN fish species (i.e. Carassius gibelio, Cyprinus carpio, Gambusia holbrooki, Hemiculter leucisculus, Gasterosteus aculeatus and Pseudorasbora parva) that were assessed to pose both high risk of being invasive and high probability of successful establishment in the AWC. The results suggest that the FISK and CLIMATCH can be an effective decision-support tools for identifying potential high risk NN fish species in the wetlands connected to the Caspian Sea.

中文翻译：

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使用淡水鱼类入侵筛选工具包（FISK）和气候匹配模型（CLIMATCH）识别伊朗安扎利湿地的非本地鱼类物种的建立风险和潜在入侵性

摘要

预测非本地物种的建立和入侵风险是制定预防措施和管理计划的基本方面。本研究的主要目的是分别使用淡水鱼入侵筛选工具包（FISK）和气候匹配模型（CLIMATCH）来识别NN鱼种的潜在建立率和入侵性。安扎里湿地综合体（AWC）被选为位于里海南部盆地的风险评估（RA）区域。总体上，在RA地区评估了15种NN鱼。接收者工作特征（ROC）曲线表明，这两个模型可靠地确定了RA地区潜在的高建立率和侵入性NN鱼。校准FISK和CLIMATCH以产生RA区域特定的阈值。阈值为11和0。FISK和CLIMATCH分别为87。FISK和CLIMATCH将NN鱼类的73.3和60％分别归类为高入侵风险和高定殖可能性。15种NN鱼中有6种（即彭泽鲫，鲤，食蚊鱼holbrooki，鲦leucisculus，Gasterosteus叶树和麦穗鱼），其被评定为提出的是在AWC成功建立的侵入性和高概率都很高风险。结果表明，FISK和CLIMATCH可以成为识别与里海相连的湿地中潜在的高风险NN鱼类的有效决策支持工具。