1. Climate change and species invasions pose serious threats to biodiversity. Daphnia lumholtzi Sars, 1885, a cladoceran species native to Africa, Asia, and Oceania, has successfully invaded large sections of North and South America, there is evidence that the increase in the Earth's temperature and the number of reservoirs have facilitated this process.
2. In this context, our study evaluated the effects of climate change on the invasive potential of D. lumholtzi, identifying the environmental suitability of non‐native river basins around the world to invasion by this species.
3. Using ecological niche modelling, we predicted potential distribution areas of D. lumholtzi in non‐native continents at the present time, in 2050 and 2080. For future scenarios we considered two hypotheses of greenhouse gas emission: extreme (8.5 representative concentration pathways) and moderate (4.5 representative concentration pathways). We used different algorithms in niche models within the ensemble forecast approach to estimate the potential distribution of D. lumholtzi river basins worldwide. Furthermore, we developed a susceptibility index, that uses the presence of D. lumholtzi, its suitability information, area, and number of reservoirs to evaluate the susceptibility to invasion for each river basin.
4. Our predictions showed that future climate change will have a strong influence on the invasive potential of D. lumholzti, potentially expanding its distribution in eastern North America and boosting invasion across Europe, especially at the end of the century. The susceptibility index also showed that many river basins that presently are not vulnerable to invasion by this species will become susceptible to invasion, these basins lie mainly in Europe.
5. Our results will be useful for monitoring and mitigating the spread of this species, especially for river basins identified as highly susceptible to invasion. Thus, we suggested that D. lumholtzi should be a high priority for monitoring and preventive actions against invasion of these river basins. We also suggest that better risk assessments, that include invasive species and reservoirs, should be a priority in national energy development plans.

中文翻译：

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对流域对淡水浮游动物（水蚤）入侵的敏感性的全球分析

1. 气候变化和物种入侵严重威胁生物多样性。Daphnia lumholtzi Sars，1885年，一种生活在非洲，亚洲和大洋洲的刺柏属物种，已成功地入侵了北美和南美的大部分地区，有证据表明地球温度的升高和水库的数量促进了这一过程。
2. 在此背景下，我们的研究评估了气候变化对D. lumholtzi入侵潜力的影响，确定了世界范围内非本地流域对该物种入侵的环境适应性。
3. 利用生态位模型，我们预测了当前非原生大陆在2050年和2080年的D. lumholtzi的潜在分布区域。对于未来的情况，我们考虑了两个温室气体排放假说：极端（8.5个典型的浓度途径）和中等排放量。 （4.5代表性的浓缩途径）。在整体预测方法中，我们在利基模型中使用了不同的算法来估计D. lumholtzi流域在世界范围内的潜在分布。此外，我们开发了一种敏感性指数，该指数利用D. lumholtzi的存在，其适宜性信息，面积和水库数量来评估每个流域的入侵敏感性。
4. 我们的预测表明，未来的气候变化将对D. lumholzti的入侵潜力产生重大影响，可能会扩大其在北美东部的分布并促进整个欧洲的入侵，尤其是在本世纪末。敏感性指数还显示，许多目前不易受该物种入侵的流域将变得易于入侵，这些流域主要位于欧洲。
5. 我们的结果将有助于监测和减轻该物种的传播，特别是对于被确定为极易入侵的流域。因此，我们建议D. lumholtzi应该成为监测和预防这些流域入侵的预防措施的高度优先事项。我们还建议，将更好的风险评估（包括入侵物种和水库）作为国家能源发展计划的优先事项。