Species that migrate long distances or between distinct habitats— for example, anadromous or catadromous fish—experience the consequences of climate change in each habitat and are therefore particularly at risk in a changing world. Studies of anadromous species often focus on freshwater despite the ocean's disproportionate influence on survival and growth. To understand a prominent anadromous species’ response to ocean climate, we use a new spatio‐temporal model jointly estimating the ocean distribution of all major fall‐run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Salmonidae) stocks from California to British Columbia over 40 years. We model hundreds of millions of tagged individuals, finding that different stocks have fundamentally different ocean distributions, distinct associations with sea surface temperature (SST), and contrasting distributional responses to historical ocean SST variation. We show species‐level estimates of ocean distribution that ignore among‐stock variation will lead to errant predictions of spatial distribution. Using future (2030–2090) SST projections to model focal stocks of fisheries importance we predict substantial ocean redistribution in response to SST change. Predicted aggregate distributional changes do not follow a simple, poleward shift. Instead, we predict net movement into some ocean regions (British Columbia, central California) but net movement out of others (northern California, Washington). Distribution shifts have implications for both major fisheries and marine mammal predators of Chinook salmon. We focus on the consequences of spatial changes in ocean distribution, but our approach provides a general structure to link marine and freshwater components of anadromous species under climate change.

中文翻译：

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响应气候，东北太平洋鲑鱼种群的重新分布

长距离迁移或在不同栖息地之间迁移的物种（例如，无鳍或无鳍鱼类）会在每个栖息地经历气候变化的后果，因此在不断变化的世界中尤其处于危险之中。尽管海洋对生存和生长的影响不成比例，但对厌食物种的研究通常集中在淡水上。为了了解主要的食蟹物种对海洋气候的响应，我们使用了一种新的时空模型，该模型可以联合估算所有主要的秋季运行的奇努克鲑鱼（Oncorhynchus tshawytscha）的海洋分布。（Salmonidae）的股票从加利福尼亚到不列颠哥伦比亚省超过40年。我们对数亿个带标签的个体进行了建模，发现不同种群的海洋分布根本不同，与海面温度（SST）的关联也不同，并且对历史海洋SST变化的分布响应形成了对比。我们显示了忽略种群间差异的海洋分布的物种级估计将导致对空间分布的错误预测。使用未来（2030-2090年）的海温预测来模拟渔业重要性种群，我们可以预测由于海温变化而引起的大量海洋再分配。预测的总体分布变化不会遵循简单的极移。取而代之的是，我们预测网将移动到某些海洋区域（不列颠哥伦比亚省，加州中部），但净移动幅度较大（北加州华盛顿）。分布的变化对奇努克鲑的主要渔业和海洋哺乳动物捕食者都有影响。我们关注海洋分布的空间变化的后果，但我们的方法提供了一种在气候变化下将无性物种的海洋和淡水成分联系起来的总体结构。