Journal of Theoretical Biology ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-19 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110561 Zeynep Gökçe İşlier 1 , Wolfgang Hörmann 1 , Refik Güllü 1
A general stochastic model for susceptible infective recovered (SIR) epidemics in non-homogeneous populations is considered. The heterogeneity is a very important aspect here since it allows more realistic but also more complex models. The basic reproduction number , an indication of the probability of an outbreak for homogeneous populations does not indicate the probability of an outbreak for non-homogeneous models anymore, because it changes with the initially infected case. Therefore, we use “individual ” that is the expected number of secondary cases for a unique given initially infected individual. Thus, the effectiveness of intervention strategies can be assessed by their capability to reduce individual values. Also a vaccination plan based on individual values for fully heterogeneous populations is proposed. It is based on the recursive calculation of individual values.
中文翻译:
使用封闭式公式评估非同质人群的干预策略
易感性的通用随机模型 传染性的 考虑非同质人群中的病原体恢复(SIR)流行病。异质性在这里是一个非常重要的方面,因为它允许使用更现实但也更复杂的模型。基本复制数,对于同质种群爆发可能性的指示不再表示对非同质模型爆发的可能性,因为它随最初感染的病例而改变。因此,我们使用“个人”,这是指特定的最初感染者的继发病例的预期数量。因此,干预策略的有效性可以通过其减少个体的能力来评估价值观。也是基于个人的疫苗接种计划提出了完全异类种群的值。它基于个体的递归计算 价值观。