Oil prices fell from around $US110 per barrel in 2014 to less than $US50per barrel at the start of 2017. This put enormous pressure on government budgets within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The focus of GCC economic policies quickly shifted to fiscal reform, including the removal of domestic subsidies on energy products. In this paper, we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the economic impact of the gradual removal of subsidies on refined petroleum and electricity, with specific reference to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).Our study shows that removing subsidies eliminates a large distortion in the economy. This improves the efficiency of resource use, so that even though employment and capital in most years fall relative to baseline levels, real GDP rises. In addition, we show that fully-funded compensation payments offset the increases in energy prices, leaving economic welfare of the Saudi-national population little affected. Removing the energy subsidies leads to an improvement in the net volume of trade, while leading to a mixed outcome for industries.

中文翻译：

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补贴改革对整个经济的影响：CGE 分析

油价从 2014 年的每桶 110 美元左右跌至 2017 年初的每桶不到 50 美元。这给海湾合作委员会 (GCC) 地区的政府预算带来了巨大压力。海合会经济政策的重点迅速转向财政改革，包括取消对能源产品的国内补贴。在本文中，我们使用动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来研究逐步取消对成品油和电力的补贴的经济影响，具体参考沙特阿拉伯王国（KSA）。补贴消除了经济的巨大扭曲。这提高了资源使用的效率，因此即使大多数年份的就业和资本相对于基线水平下降，实际 GDP 也会上升。此外，我们表明，全额赔偿金抵消了能源价格的上涨，沙特国民的经济福利几乎没有受到影响。取消能源补贴会导致净贸易量的改善，同时给行业带来喜忧参半的结果。