This paper analyzes the impact of the presence of foreign missions on trade using Turkey's unique expansion in its foreign embassy network (39 new embassies in 8 years) as the source of variation in a panel data setting. A majority of the existing empirical studies use cross-sectional bilateral trade data due to lack of variation over time (Rose, 2007; Moons and Bergeijk, 2013). Employing a panel data analysis, this paper is able to address the endogeneity issues that are associated with a standard cross-sectional analysis. The dependent variable in the paper is the trade between Turkey and 190 countries for 2006 to 2016. The results indicate that presence of an embassy increases export value by 30% and this increase comes mainly from the volume effect. Categorizing goods by the Rauch (1999) classification shows that the increase in differentiated goods exports is the main driver of the export surge. The number of exporting firms increases by about 8%. There is no statistically significant impact on the exports of homogeneous goods. Replication of the analysis for imports suggests no impact on imports.

中文翻译：

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大使馆的存在对贸易的影响：来自土耳其的证据

本文利用土耳其在其外国大使馆网络中的独特扩张（8 年内新增 39 个大使馆）作为面板数据设置的变异来源，分析了外国使团的存在对贸易的影响。由于缺乏随时间的变化，现有的大多数实证研究都使用横截面双边贸易数据（Rose，2007；Moons 和 Bergeijk，2013）。本文采用面板数据分析，能够解决与标准横截面分析相关的内生性问题。论文中的因变量是 2006 年至 2016 年土耳其与 190 个国家之间的贸易。结果表明，大使馆的存在使出口值增加了 30%，而这种增加主要来自数量效应。通过 Rauch (1999) 分类对商品进行分类表明，差异化商品出口的增加是出口激增的主要驱动力。出口企业的数量增加了约 8%。对同质商品的出口没有统计上的显着影响。重复进口分析表明对进口没有影响。