This research note examines data on US citizens’ overseas air passenger travel with respect to the degree of persistence, seasonality, nonlinearities, and fractional integration. Based on seasonally differenced data with allowance for autocorrelated errors, we find evidence of nonlinearity with moderate persistence and mean reversion in US overseas air travel. The results suggest that shocks to US overseas air travel will dissipate over time, and as such, the observed persistence and nonlinearity can provide useful information in the modeling and forecasting of future behavior.

中文翻译：

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在非线性框架内的持久性，季节性和分数整合：来自美国公民海外旅行的证据

本研究报告就持久性，季节性，非线性和分数积分的程度，研究了美国公民海外航空旅客旅行的数据。基于季节性差异数据并考虑自动相关误差，我们发现了在美国海外航空旅行中具有中等持续性和均值回归的非线性证据。结果表明，随着时间的流逝，对美国海外航空旅行的冲击将会消散，因此，观察到的持续性和非线性可以为未来行为的建模和预测提供有用的信息。