Economic sanctions usually fail, sometimes even provoking the opposite of the intended outcome. Why are sanctions so often ineffective? One prominent view is that sanctions generate popular support for the targeted government and its policies; an outcome referred to as the rally-around-the-flag effect. We quantify this effect in the context of a major trade dispute between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which led to a cut in gas exports to Ukraine and a sharp increase of gas prices. Using individual data on political and economic preferences before and after the trade dispute and exploiting the cross section heterogeneity in the individual exposure to the price shock—measured by the connection to a centralized gas/heating system—we find that people more directly affected by the increase of gas prices were significantly more likely to change their opinions in support of Western-style political and economic systems preferred by the incumbent government, consistent with a rally-around-the-flag effect.

中文翻译：

---

制裁与舆论：俄罗斯与乌克兰天然气纠纷案

经济制裁通常会失败，有时甚至会激怒预期的结果。为什么制裁常常如此无效？一种明显的观点是，制裁对目标政府及其政策产生了普遍支持。被称为“旗鼓”的结果影响。我们在乌克兰和俄罗斯联邦之间的重大贸易争端中量化了这种影响，这导致了对乌克兰的天然气出口减少和天然气价格急剧上涨。使用贸易争端前后的政治和经济偏好的个人数据，并利用个人在受到价格冲击的风险中的横截面异质性（通过与集中式天然气/供暖系统的连接来衡量），我们发现人们更直接地受到贸易影响的影响。天然气价格上涨更有可能改变其观点，以支持现任政府偏爱的西方式政治和经济体系，这与旗鼓相当的效应相一致。