The literature emphasizes the role of monetary policy for the term structure's ability to predict business cycles. Between 1972 and 2018, Ireland experienced three monetary regimes: first, the Irish Pound was fixed to Sterling (1972–1979); second the Pound floated in a band when Ireland was a member of EMS (1979–1998); and third, as a member of the euro area (1999–2018). Using dynamic probit models and monthly data, I show that the term spread only had predictive power during the second regime, the only one in which the Central Bank of Ireland had discretion to set interest rates based on the domestic conditions.

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1972–2018年爱尔兰的货币制度，期限结构和经济周期

文献强调货币政策对于期限结构预测商业周期的能力的作用。在1972年至2018年之间，爱尔兰经历了三种货币制度：首先，爱尔兰镑被固定为英镑（1972-1979）；第二，爱尔兰加入EMS（1979-1998）时，英镑浮动在一支乐队中；第三，是欧元区成员国（1999-2018年）。使用动态的概率模型和月度数据，我证明了利差一词仅在第二种制度中具有预测能力，这是爱尔兰中央银行可以根据国内情况自行决定利率的唯一制度。