We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced‐form estimates and relate the reduced‐form Phillips Curve to the (semi‐)structural models used at the ECB. Second, we identify the slope of the structural Phillips Curve by exploiting cross‐country variation and using high‐frequency monetary policy surprises as instruments. Third, we present reduced‐form evidence, focusing on the relation between slack and inflation and the role of inflation expectations. In relation to the recent weakness of inflation, we discuss the role of firm profits in the pass‐through from wages to prices and the contribution of external factors. Overall, the available evidence supports the view that the absorption of slack and a firm anchoring of inflation expectations remain central to successful inflation stabilization.

中文翻译：

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欧洲央行的菲利普斯曲线

我们将解释菲利普斯曲线在欧洲央行经济前景分析和制定货币政策中的作用。首先，回顾结构菲利普斯曲线，我们重点介绍了从简化形式的估计中恢复结构参数所面临的挑战，并将简化形式的菲利普斯曲线与欧洲央行使用的（半）结构模型相关联。其次，我们通过利用跨国差异并使用高频货币政策意外因素作为工具来识别结构性菲利普斯曲线的斜率。第三，我们提供简化形式的证据，重点关注松弛和通货膨胀与通货膨胀预期的作用之间的关系。关于最近的通胀疲软，我们讨论了企业利润在从工资到价格的传递以及外部因素的贡献中的作用。总体，