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An Intra-City Analysis of House Price Convergence and Spatial Dependence
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-08 , DOI: 10.1007/s11146-020-09799-w
Omar H. M. N. Bashar

This paper seeks to test the intra-city convergence of house prices using the comprehensive suburban house price and census data for a key Australian city. It applies the regression-based β-convergence test combined with spatial econometric models to examine the conditional convergence of house prices across 300+ suburbs in the Melbourne metropolitan area. This paper finds evidence of house price convergence when the econometric model controls for spatial effects and a few other suburban characteristics, such as population size, economic profile, education and employment profile, and crime rate. However, the convergence rate is found to be decelerated in the post-GFC periods. The estimation results suggest a faster convergence rate for units/apartments than for freestanding houses. There is also evidence of spatial effects, implying that house price growth in Melbourne suburbs is spilling over into the neighboring suburbs. These findings are expected to shed new light on understanding the residential real estate market and price dynamics within a city in the context of a developed nation and help design relevant housing policies.



中文翻译:

房价趋同与空间依赖的同城分析

本文试图使用澳大利亚一个主要城市的郊区房价和人口普查数据来测试房价的市内收敛性。它应用基于回归的 β-收敛检验结合空间计量经济模型来检验墨尔本大都市区 300 多个郊区的房价的条件收敛性。当计量经济学模型控制空间效应和其他一些郊区特征(如人口规模、经济状况、教育和就业状况以及犯罪率)时,本文发现了房价收敛的证据。然而,发现收敛速度在后 GFC 时期减速。估计结果表明单元/公寓的收敛速度比独立式房屋更快。也有空间效应的证据,这意味着墨尔本郊区的房价上涨正在蔓延到邻近郊区。预计这些发现将为理解发达国家背景下的城市住宅房地产市场和价格动态提供新的思路,并有助于设计相关的住房政策。

更新日期:2020-10-08
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