I present evidence that shocks to the Medieval English harvest persisted. Hypothesized mechanisms include varying supplies of seed corn and other complementary harvest inputs. Peasants are modeled as trading off current consumption against grain stores and sow rates so that subsistence-level shocks may persist. For my sample I find that a failed harvest increased the probability of subsequent harvest failure by 20–30 percent. Grain yields are analyzed as a strongly balanced panel by year, manor, and crop. While I reject the hypothesis that harvests were self-contained annual events, I caution against linking harvest persistence directly to runs in grain prices.

中文翻译：

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中世纪英格兰收成冲击的持续存在

我提出的证据表明，对中世纪英语收成的冲击持续存在。假设的机制包括不同的玉米种子供应和其他互补的收获投入。农民被建模为在当前消费与谷物商店和播种率之间进行权衡，以便维持生计水平的冲击可能持续存在。对于我的样本，我发现收割失败会使后续收割失败的概率增加 20-30%。谷物产量按年份、庄园和作物作为一个高度平衡的面板进行分析。虽然我拒绝收成是自给自足的年度事件的假设，但我警告不要将收成的持续性直接与谷物价格的上涨联系起来。