Human civilisation faces a series of existential threats from the combination of five global and human-engineered challenges, namely climate change, resource depletion, environmental degradation, overpopulation and rising social inequality. These challenges are arguably being manifested in both an increased likelihood and magnified impact of catastrophes like forest fires, prolonged droughts, pandemics and social dislocation/upheaval. This article argues that in understanding and addressing these challenges, important lessons can be drawn from what has repeatedly caused organisational failures. It applies the ‘Ten Pathways to Disaster’ model to a series of disasters/catastrophic events and then argues this model is salient to understanding inadequate responses to the five threats to civilisation. The article argues that because these challenges interact in mutually reinforcing ways, it is critical to address them simultaneously not in isolation.

JEL Codes: H12, I14, I31, J11, Q01

人类文明面临着五个全球性挑战和人为制造的挑战的一系列生存威胁，这些挑战是气候变化，资源枯竭，环境退化，人口过多和社会不平等加剧。可以说，这些挑战体现在诸如森林火灾，长期干旱，大流行和社会错位/动荡等灾难的可能性增加和影响扩大方面。本文认为，在理解和应对这些挑战时，可以从反复造成组织失败的原因中汲取重要教训。它将“十大灾难之门”模型应用于一系列灾难/灾难性事件，然后认为该模型对于理解对五种文明威胁的反应不足是很重要的。

JEL代码： H12，I14，I31，J11，Q01