Market capitalism typically goes through cycles of expansion and contraction. Every now and then, these common economic cycles go off the hinges. They become unstable and can lead to recessions, crises and depressions—phenomena that economists typically explain by looking to exogenous forces. Alternative explanations—mostly Marxian and Keynesian—for the instabilities have been sought within the structure of the economic system itself. One such explanation is provided by Steve Keen in his Goodwin–Minsky model. The model effectively mimics the dynamics of key indicators prior to, during and after the 2007/08 crisis. However, the model is also over‐specified, highly sensitive to initial conditions and therefore more difficult to convey. In line with George Box's plea for parsimony, this paper presents a more straightforward version of Keen's model that remains consistent with its fundamental behaviour. The model also illustrates the potential for further dialogue between Marxian economics and system dynamics.

中文翻译：

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金融不稳定的动力：简化Keen的Goodwin-Minsky模型

市场资本主义通常经历扩张和收缩的周期。这些共同的经济周期时不时地脱离铰链。它们变得不稳定，并可能导致衰退，危机和萧条，这是经济学家通常通过寻找外生力量来解释的现象。在经济体系本身的结构内，人们一直在寻求关于不稳定的替代解释，主要是马克思主义和凯恩斯主义。史蒂夫·基恩（Steve Keen）在他的Goodwin-Minsky模型中提供了一种这样的解释。该模型有效地模拟了2007/08危机之前，之中和之后的关键指标动态。但是，该模型也被过度指定，对初始条件高度敏感，因此更难以传达。与乔治·博克斯（George Box）的简约诉求一致，本文提出了基恩（Keen）的模型与其基本行为保持一致。该模型还说明了马克思主义经济学与系统动力学之间进一步对话的潜力。