ABSTRACT

A main channel through which climate change is expected to affect the economy is the agricultural sector. Large spatial variability in these impacts and high levels of uncertainty in climate change projections create methodological challenges for assessing the consequences this sector could face. Crop emulators based on econometric fixed-effects models that can closely reproduce biophysical models are estimated. With these reduced form crop emulators, we develop AIRCCA, a user-friendly software for the assessment of impacts and risks of climate change on agriculture, that allows stakeholders to make a rapid global assessment of the effects of climate change on maize, wheat and rice yields. AIRCCA produces spatially explicit probabilistic impact scenarios and user-defined risk metrics for the main four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) emissions scenarios.

摘要

预计气候变化将影响经济的主要渠道是农业部门。这些影响的巨大空间变异性以及气候变化预测的高度不确定性给评估该部门可能面临的后果提出了方法上的挑战。估计了基于经济计量固定效应模型的作物模拟器，该模型可以精确地再现生物物理模型。借助这些简化的作物模拟器，我们开发了AIRCCA，这是一种用户友好的软件，用于评估气候变化对农业的影响和风险，使利益相关者能够对气候变化对玉米，小麦和水稻的影响进行快速的全球评估产量。