ABSTRACT

This study aims to illuminate factors that explain changes in literacy skills across up to six years of adulthood, using data from two waves of the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS; N = 4,359). More specifically, we gauge the relative importance of three groups of factors that previous research and theorizing have highlighted as possible predictors of changes over time in literacy: Socio-demographic characteristics, literacy practices, and basic cognitive abilities. Three key findings emerge from our analyses: (1) literary practices predict gains in literacy, in line with the “use it or lose it” hypothesis; (2) sociodemographic factors that reflect higher resources and skills (particularly, high formal education and German as mother tongue) predict gains in literacy, resembling a “Matthew effect”; (3) lower basic cognitive abilities predict higher losses in literacy, consistent with the “general slowing” hypothesis of cognitive aging.

摘要

这项研究旨在利用两次德国国家教育小组研究（NEPS; N= 4,359）。更具体地说，我们评估了先前研究和理论化强调的三组因素的相对重要性，这些因素是扫盲时间随时间变化的可能预测因素：社会人口统计学特征，识字实践和基本认知能力。我们的分析得出三个主要发现：（1）文学实践根据“使用它或失去它”假说来预测识字率的提高；（2）反映较高的资源和技能的社会人口统计学因素（尤其是受过较高的正规教育和德语为母语）可以预测识字率的提高，类似于“马修效应”；（3）较低的基本认知能力预示着识字率的较高损失，这与认知衰老的“一般放慢”假设相一致。