We empirically study the impact of inflation targeting credibility on business cycle synchronization with G-7 economies. To do this, we use a sample of 15 inflation targeting countries to develop and calculate a reputation-based credibility measure for long- and short-term memory. By using dynamic multipliers through a panel vector autoregressive model, our main findings indicate that greater credibility allows for greater anchoring of inflation expectations by economic agents. This would lead to a greater effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing the evolution of prices, allowing the output gap to be more sensitive to external aggregate demand shocks. Therefore, countries with inflation targeting regimes must develop and maintain credibility for their monetary policy if they want to encourage greater interactions with the rest of the world.

中文翻译：

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商业周期同步：是否受到通胀目标制信誉的影响？

我们从经验上研究了通胀目标制信誉对七国集团经济体经济周期同步的影响。为此，我们使用了15个针对通胀目标国家的样本，以开发和计算基于信誉的信誉度度量标准，以进行长期和短期记忆。通过面板向量自回归模型使用动态乘数，我们的主要发现表明，更高的信誉度允许经济因素更大地锚定通胀预期。这将导致货币政策在稳定价格演变方面发挥更大的作用，使产出缺口对外部总需求冲击更为敏感。因此，拥有通货膨胀目标制的国家如果要鼓励与世界其他国家的互动，就必须发展并维持其货币政策的信誉。