For PPML estimation of high-dimensional structural gravity panel models it proves useful to exploit the equilibrium restrictions imposed by the system of multilateral resistances. The main advantage of this approach lies in the functional dependence of the parameters of all dummy variables on the structural trade cost parameters. Moreover, the delta method is used to establish confidence intervals of counterfactual changes. Using the constrained panel PPML estimator for a panel of 65 countries in the period 1994–2012 indicates significant trade creation of economic integration agreements with average ranging in between 12.2 and 30.3% in 2012. Results also point to substantial domestic and international trade diversion, where the former dominates the latter.

中文翻译：

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重新审视经济一体化协议的贸易创造和贸易转移：一种受约束的面板伪最大似然法

对于高维结构重力面板模型的PPML估计，证明利用多边抵抗系统施加的平衡限制是有用的。这种方法的主要优点在于所有虚拟变量的参数对结构性贸易成本参数的功能依赖性。而且，增量法用于建立反事实变化的置信区间。在1994年至2012年期间，对65个国家/地区的小组使用受限面板PPML估计量表明，经济一体化协议的大量贸易创造，2012年的平均幅度在12.2％至30.3％之间。结果还表明，国内外贸易大量转移，前者主导后者。