The effects of regionalism on trade have been extensively evaluated within a gravity model framework. With the expected exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), the prospect of regional disintegration has brought about a new impetus to studying trade policy effects. Using actual and forecast data for a panel of bilateral imports between the EU15 and the rest of the world, this paper examines the trade effects of EU economic integration agreements (EIAs), their evolution over time and the related counterfactual Brexit trade policy scenarios. Distinct trade effects are obtained for the EU trade related agreements; positive, significant and of similar magnitude for the EU and free trade agreement (FTA) coefficients, but negative and significant (and smaller in magnitude) for the regional economic partnership agreements (EPAs). The subperiod results suggest the positive coefficients of EU and FTA membership tend to diminish over time, implying earlier membership of EIAs came with greater trade benefits. Finally, in generating the predicted values for the trade effects of three alternative counterfactual Brexit scenarios (hard Brexit, hard Brexit plus, global Britain), the findings suggest an asymmetric effect depending on the perspective of the UK versus the EU. Whereas the UK’s trade would decline substantially with all three country groups (the EU, the FTAs and regional EPAs) and rise substantially with the rest of the world, only minor percentage changes are predicted for EU bilateral trade.

中文翻译：

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欧盟经济一体化协议，脱欧与贸易

区域主义对贸易的影响已在重力模型框架内进行了广泛评估。随着英国（UK）有望退出欧盟（EU），区域解体的前景为研究贸易政策效果带来了新的动力。本文使用欧盟15国与世界其他地区之间的双边进口面板的实际数据和预测数据，研究了欧盟经济一体化协议（EIA）的贸易影响，其随着时间的演变以及相关的反事实性英国退欧贸易政策情景。欧盟贸易相关协议获得了明显的贸易影响；欧盟和自由贸易协定（FTA）系数为正，重要且大小相似，而区域经济伙伴关系协定（EPA）为负和重要（大小较小）。次期结果表明，随着时间的推移，欧盟和自由贸易协定成员的正系数趋于减少，这意味着EIA的早期成员具有更大的贸易利益。最后，在为三种反事实的英国脱欧情景（硬脱欧，硬脱欧加上，全球英国）产生贸易影响的预测值时，研究结果表明不对称效应取决于英国与欧盟的观点。英国与三个国家（欧盟，FTA和区域EPA）的贸易将大幅下降，而与世界其他国家的贸易则大幅上升，但预计欧盟双边贸易的百分比变化很小。最后，在为三种反事实的英国脱欧情景（硬脱欧，硬脱欧加上，全球英国）产生贸易效应的预测值时，研究结果表明，取决于英国与欧盟的观点，这种效应是不对称的。英国与三个国家（欧盟，FTA和区域EPA）的贸易将大幅下降，而与世界其他国家的贸易则大幅上升，但预计欧盟双边贸易的百分比变化很小。最后，在为三种反事实的英国脱欧情景（硬脱欧，硬脱欧加上，全球英国）产生贸易效应的预测值时，研究结果表明，取决于英国与欧盟的观点，这种效应是不对称的。英国与三个国家（欧盟，FTA和区域EPA）的贸易将大幅下降，而与世界其他国家的贸易则大幅上升，但预计欧盟双边贸易的百分比变化很小。