With global value chains interlocking today’s economies, what is the impact of diplomatic tensions on international trade? We exploit variation in monthly data on imports, a measure of imported input use in the domestic economy, and the incidence of bilateral diplomatic tensions to show that their impact on trade is heterogeneous across countries and industries. Trade in industries that are crucial for domestic production is more sensitive to political tensions. We expose the underlying mechanism in a simple framework before testing it in reduced form.

中文翻译：

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至关重要：外交紧张对贸易的异质影响

随着全球价值链环环相扣，当今的经济，外交紧张对国际贸易产生了什么影响？我们利用进口月度数据的变化，衡量国内经济中进口投入的使用情况以及双边外交紧张局势的发生率来表明，它们对贸易的影响在国家和行业之间是不同的。对国内生产至关重要的工业贸易对政治紧张局势更为敏感。在以简化形式进行测试之前，我们将基本机制公开在一个简单的框架中。