The design of climate change policy must address a number of key uncertainties, including the impacts of climate change, the economics of a carbon tax, and the global effort to combat climate change. A periodic review of each of these issues would provide new information and analysis that could be used to reduce uncertainty and inform the updating of a carbon tax over time. This article proposes and describes a straightforward and predictable approach for reviewing and updating a U.S. carbon tax. Under this “structured discretion” approach, the U.S. president would recommend an update to the carbon tax every 5 years, which would be based on government agency reviews of the environmental, economic, and multilateral conditions related to climate change. Following a process that is modeled after the expedited consideration of trade agreements, the U.S. Congress would agree to vote on the recommended carbon tax update. This process could also be coordinated with the timing of the emission mitigation pledging rounds under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. I suggest that the institutionalization of such an act-learn-act approach to carbon tax design could improve the political viability of a carbon tax and promote its adaptability to changing environmental, economic, and multilateral conditions, which would likely increase net social welfare over time.

中文翻译：

---

碳税审查和更新：将“采取行动，学习采取行动”的方法制度化为美国气候政策

气候变化政策的设计必须解决许多关键的不确定性，包括气候变化的影响，碳税的经济学以及应对气候变化的全球努力。对这些问题中的每一个进行定期审查将提供新的信息和分析，这些信息和分析可用于减少不确定性并为随着时间的推移更新碳税提供依据。本文提出并描述了审查和更新美国碳税的直接且可预测的方法。在这种“结构化的自由裁量权”方法下，美国总统将建议每5年更新一次碳税，这将基于政府机构对与气候变化有关的环境，经济和多边条件的审查。按照加快审议贸易协定的程序，美国 国会将同意对建议的碳税更新进行投票。此过程还可以与2015年《巴黎气候协议》下的减排承诺承诺回合的时间进行协调。我建议，将这种“行为学习”方法用于碳税设计的制度化可以改善碳税的政治可行性，并促进其对变化的环境，经济和多边条件的适应性，这很可能会随着时间的流逝而增加净社会福利。 。