The resource curse literature presents conflicting evidence on the relationship between natural resources and development. We evaluate the direct effect of resources on developmental outcomes vis-à-vis their indirect effect through the weakening of political institutions using a 3SLS instrumental variable setup that simultaneously estimates development outcomes and institutions. We find that resource abundance and resource dependence affect development outcomes through different channels. While resource abundance generally has a direct positive effect on developmental outcomes, resource dependence has a stronger negative indirect effect that operates through its negative impact on institutional quality. The results also depend on the type of development outcome considered, with more consistent positive direct effects found for physical capital measures and stronger negative indirect effects for human capital development. The use of a simultaneous framework and dual measures of resources reconciles seemingly contradictory findings in earlier work.

资源诅咒文献就自然资源与发展之间的关系提出了相互矛盾的证据。我们通过同时估算发展成果和制度的3SLS工具变量设置，通过削弱政治制度来评估资源对发展成果的直接影响，而不是其间接影响。我们发现资源丰富和资源依赖通过不同渠道影响发展成果。虽然资源丰富通常对发展成果具有直接的积极影响，但资源依赖性通过对制度质量的负面影响而具有更强的负面间接影响。结果还取决于所考虑的发展成果的类型，对实物资本测算具有更一致的正直接影响，对人力资本发展具有更强的负间接影响。使用同时使用的框架和资源的双重措施可以使早期工作中看来矛盾的结果协调一致。