Given the significant need to increase and diversify graduate enrollments within computing fields, it is vital to understand what shapes students’ pathways to computing graduate school. This study examines the predictors of undergraduate students’ self-confidence in being admitted to computing graduate school among students who enrolled in an introductory computing course during the 2015–2016 academic year and completed both an end-of-intro-course survey as well as a follow-up survey two years later. Guided by social cognitive career theory, this longitudinal and multi-institutional study uses structural equation modeling to illustrate the direct and indirect relationships between students’ social identities (specifically gender and race/ethnicity), psychosocial beliefs, perceptions of support, and self-confidence for computing graduate admission. Findings suggest that gender and racial/ethnic inequities in self-confidence for graduate admission are present during introductory computing courses, and women’s early perceptions in intro courses (e.g., math self-concept) seem to play an especially vital role in explaining why women ultimately report lower self-confidence for computing graduate admission than men. Findings also highlight the key mediating role of computing self-efficacy in cultivating students’ self-confidence for computing graduate admission. Taken together, these results have important implications for understanding intro computing students’ perceptions about their graduate school trajectories and how to foster a more diverse graduate applicant pool.

鉴于在计算领域内增加和多样化研究生入学的巨大需求，至关重要的是要了解什么因素决定了学生进入计算机研究生院的途径。这项研究调查了2015-2016学年就读入门计算课程的学生中，本科生对进入计算机研究生院的自信心的预测因素，并完成了课程结束后的调查以及两年后的后续调查。在社会认知职业理论的指导下，这项纵向和多机构的研究使用结构方程模型来说明学生的社会身份（特别是性别和种族/民族），社会心理信念，支持感和自信之间的直接和间接关系。用于计算研究生录取。研究结果表明，入门计算课程中存在着性别和种族/族裔不平等的研究生录取问题，并且女性在入门课程中的早期认知（例如数学自我概念）似乎在解释为什么女性最终会发挥特别重要的作用。报告说，计算入学率的自信心比男性低。研究结果还强调了计算机自我效能感在培养学生对计算机研究生录取的自信心方面的关键中介作用。综上所述，这些结果对于理解入门计算学生对他们研究生院的轨迹以及如何建立一个更加多样化的研究生申请者群体的看法具有重要的意义。