ABSTRACT

Bringing peace, security, and stability to the war-torn region of Donbas has proven to be a challenging – some would say near-impossible – task. The “Minsk II” agreement, signed in February 2015, was supposed to put an end to the armed hostilities, resolve the underlying political issues, and gradually restore Ukrainian government control of the country’s eastern border. None of this has happened. Despite continuous Western support and pressure, progress in the implementation of the peace plan signed in Minsk has been slow, also after the much-anticipated Paris summit of the “Normandy Four” (Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France) in December 2019. This article discusses the underlying causes of the current stalemate, emphasizing factors such as the inherently complex nature of the conflict, the process through which “Minsk II” came into being, the vague and ambiguous language of this and other agreements, practical challenges related to the timing and sequencing of agreed-upon measures, and Russia’s persistent non-acknowledgement of its role in the conflict.

摘要

向饱受战争war的顿巴斯地区带来和平，安全与稳定已被证明是一项艰巨的任务，有人说这几乎是不可能的。2015年2月签署的“明斯克II号”协议旨在结束武装敌对行动，解决根本的政治问题，并逐步恢复乌克兰政府对该国东部边界的控制。这些都没有发生。尽管西方持续不断的支持和压力，但在明斯克签署的和平计划的执行进度仍然缓慢，这也是在备受期待的“诺曼底四国”巴黎峰会（俄罗斯，乌克兰，德国和法国）2019年12月之后。本文讨论了当前僵局的根本原因，着重强调了诸如冲突固有的复杂性，“明斯克II号”的形成过程，