ABSTRACT

How do protest movements affect electoral politics in electoral authoritarianism? Related research has usually focused on the immediate effects of protests on regime change, while longer time periods have received less attention. To address this shortcoming, this paper explores the 2017/18 presidential campaign of the Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, asking how it was related to earlier contentious episodes, beginning with the countrywide protest wave of 2011/12. Drawing on qualitative and quantitative data sources, I argue that these protests affected different categories of actors differently. While they clearly provided Navalny with a boost in recognizability among the population, they were less important for mobilizing the online supporters of his 2017/18 campaign. At the same time, previous movement experience appears to have been vital for the political socialization of a significant share of Navalny’s core activists. Considered together, the results attest to the importance of studying the long-term trajectories of protest in stable electoral authoritarian contexts.

摘要

抗议运动如何影响选举威权主义中的选举政治？相关研究通常集中于抗议活动对政权更迭的直接影响，而更长的时间却很少受到关注。为了解决这个缺陷，本文探讨了俄罗斯反对派政治家阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼（Alexei Navalny）在2017/18年度总统大选中的问题，询问它与早期争议事件的关系如何，始于2011/12年全国抗议浪潮。利用定性和定量数据源，我认为这些抗议对不同类别的演员的影响不同。尽管他们显然为纳瓦尼提供了提高的知名度，但对于动员他的2017/18竞选活动的在线支持者来说，重要性不那么重要。与此同时，先前的运动经历对于Navalny的大部分核心活动家的政治社会化似乎至关重要。综合考虑，结果证明了在稳定的选举专制背景下研究抗议活动的长期轨迹的重要性。