ABSTRACT

This paper applies the model of opinion formation developed by John Zaller to the study of anti-American attitudes in the Russian elite. It examines the relative weight of political predispositions (interests, values, and experiences) versus immediately accessible “considerations” that depend on the flow of information in elite discourse. Based on survey data from 1995–2016, we find that two key political predispositions (identification as a Westernizer or Slavophile and service in the military and security agencies) are highly significant in the Yel’tsin period, when debates about Western intentions toward Russia were robust and the Kremlin’s messaging was diverse. By contrast, anti-American sentiment in the elite has become more uniform in the Putin era, which we attribute to an increasingly fervent anti-American narrative on state-controlled television. In a period of clear and unequivocal messaging emanating from Kremlin-controlled media, these signals have surpassed civilizational identity and service in the force structures in importance.

摘要

本文将约翰·扎勒（John Zaller）开发的意见形成模型用于研究俄罗斯精英中的反美态度。它考察了政治倾向（利益，价值和经验）与根据精英话语中的信息流可立即获得的“考虑”的相对权重。根据1995年至2016年的调查数据，我们发现，在叶尔钦时期，有两个主要的政治倾向（被确认为洋务员或斯拉沃夫派，以及在军事和安全机构中的职务），当时西方对俄罗斯意图的辩论颇多。健壮，克里姆林宫的讯息是多样的。相比之下，普京时代的精英阶层中的反美情绪变得更加统一，我们将其归因于国家控制电视上日益强烈的反美叙述。在克里姆林宫控制的媒体发出清晰，明确的信息的时期，这些信号已经超过了部队机构的文明认同和服务。