ABSTRACT

This article applies time series analysis to examine weekly data on Vladimir Putin’s approval rating and their dependence on terrorist attacks. I find that minor terrorist attacks with few or no fatalities in Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan increase Putin’s ratings, while major terrorist attacks, with more than four fatalities, have a negative impact. There is also evidence that terrorist attacks in other Russian regions reduce Putin’s public approval; however, this evidence is weaker and depends on the model specification. Furthermore, I control for main annual media events with President Putin’s participation: the television Q&A program “Direct Line with V. Putin,” Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly, and a large annual press conference. All three media events increase the president’s approval, with Direct Line having the least effect.

摘要

本文应用时间序列分析来检查有关弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）赞成率及其对恐怖袭击的依赖性的每周数据。我发现在车臣，印古什和达吉斯坦发生的死亡人数很少或没有死亡的轻微恐怖袭击提高了普京的收视率，而死亡人数超过4的重大恐怖袭击却产生了负面影响。还有证据表明，在俄罗斯其他地区的恐怖袭击减少了普京的公众认可；但是，该证据较弱，取决于模型规格。此外，在普京总统的参与下，我控制着主要的年度媒体活动：电视问答节目“与V.普京的直接联系”，普京在联邦议会上的讲话以及大型年度新闻发布会。所有这三项媒体活动均增加了总统的批准，其中“直线”影响最小。