ABSTRACT

This article examines ideological constraint among Russian foreign policy elites, using all seven waves of the Survey of Russian Elites 1993–2016 to explore four questions: (1) Do attitudes expressed by members of the Russian foreign policy elite form a constrained belief system? (2) What is the content of Russian elite belief systems? (3) Do different groups within the foreign policy community differ with regard to their ideological attachments? (4) How have these belief systems changed over time? My statistical analysis reveals two structured belief systems within Russia’s elite: one focused on attitudes toward the US and another regarding economic and political institutions. Attitudes toward the US have vacillated over time, compressing in a more hostile direction in 2016. In analyzing these elites’ attitudes, variation over time proves more significant than variation between elite groups.

摘要

本文使用1993-2016年俄罗斯精英调查的全部七次浪潮，考察了俄罗斯外交政策精英中的意识形态约束，以探讨四个问题：（1）俄罗斯外交政策精英成员表达的态度是否形成了受约束的信仰体系？（2）俄罗斯精英信仰体系的内容是什么？（3）外交政策界内的不同群体在思想依恋方面是否有所不同？（4）这些信念体系随着时间的变化如何？我的统计分析揭示了俄罗斯精英内部的两个结构化的信仰体系：一个专注于对美国的态度，另一个关注经济和政治制度。随着时间的流逝，对美国的态度开始动摇，在2016年朝着更加敌对的方向压缩。在分析这些精英的态度时，