ABSTRACT

This survey addresses production and employment effects, which emanate from the extractive industries of Kazakhstan. To this end, the study employs static input-output models (IOMs) of Kazakhstan for the years 2007, 2010, 2012, and 2017 and dynamic nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models for the period 1995–2018. IOMs show that extractives in Kazakhstan exhibit relatively strong links to domestic manufacturing. NARDL estimators reveal a positive relationship between commodity revenues and manufacturing value added in the commodity revenue boom phase and a high level of resilience of Kazakh manufacturing to the downward movements of the commodity revenues. Commodity revenues have a statistically significant positive impact on the aggregate employment rate. The study does not detect asymmetries concerning the job creation effects of extractives in the manufacturing sector.

摘要

该调查涉及哈萨克斯坦采掘业对生产和就业的影响。为此，该研究采用了哈萨克斯坦2007年，2010年，2012年和2017年的静态投入产出模型（IOM），以及1995-2018年的动态非线性自回归分布滞后模型（NARDL）。国际移民组织显示，哈萨克斯坦的采掘业与国内制造业有着相对紧密的联系。NARDL 估算器显示，在商品收入繁荣阶段，商品收入与制造业增加值之间存在正相关关系，以及哈萨克斯坦制造业对商品收入下降的高度弹性。商品收入对总就业率具有统计上显着的积极影响。