ABSTRACT

Using the Synthetic Control Method, we estimate the effect of a large package of expansionary fiscal measures implemented in Romania from 2015 onwards. We find that it had a large and significant effect on GDP growth, ranging from 4.4 to 5.5 percentage points, accumulated over three years, with the largest effect in the third year, i.e. 2017. In this way, we try to address an important puzzle that arises in Romania from the fact that, on the one hand, standard macroeconomic models find very small (or even insignificant) fiscal multipliers, while on the other hand policy papers tend to quote the country’s expansionary fiscal policy as a factor behind the high growth rates achieved.

摘要

使用综合控制方法，我们估算了从2015年开始在罗马尼亚实施的一揽子扩张性财政措施的效果。我们发现，它对GDP增长产生了巨大且显着的影响，三年累计了4.4％至5.5个百分点，在第三年（即2017年）影响最大。通过这种方式，我们尝试解决一个重要难题罗马尼亚之所以如此，是因为，一方面，标准的宏观经济模型发现了很小的（甚至微不足道的）财政乘数，另一方面，政策文件倾向于引用该国的扩张性财政政策作为高增长背后的一个因素。达到的速度。