ABSTRACT

This paper presents a simple macro-econometric simultaneous equation model for the Russian economy. The consumption function is based on Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis. We assume that permanent income is estimated by households based on aggregate income dynamics using adaptive expectations. The paper compares two permanent income model specifications whereby either GDP or disposable income serves as the aggregate income variable. The specification based on the hypothesis where households consume a constant share of permanent GDP in constant consumer prices proved to be the best. The superior explanatory potential of this model when compared with alternative specifications supports the hypothesis that the behaviour of economic agents in the Russian economy considers Ricardian equivalence.

摘要

本文为俄罗斯经济提供了一个简单的宏观经济计量联立方程模型。消费函数基于弗里德曼的永久收入假设。我们假设家庭根据总收入动态使用适应性预期估计永久收入。本文比较了两种永久收入模型规范，其中 GDP 或可支配收入作为总收入变量。事实证明，基于家庭在恒定消费价格中消费永久 GDP 中恒定份额的假设的规范是最好的。与替代规范相比，该模型的卓越解释潜力支持了俄罗斯经济中经济主体的行为考虑李嘉图等价的假设。