ABSTRACT

After two decades of meagre results in post-Soviet regionalism, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is the first gleam of hope. However, research on the EAEU is mostly Russia-centred and focused on trade issues, which leaves the small states’ perspectives and developmental aspects, such as the EAEU’s industrial cooperation agenda, understudied. The small states might disproportionately benefit from a shift towards developmental regionalism, but there are also many challenges associated with this issue. Thus, this paper examines Armenia’s and Belarus’ industrial development prospects in the framework of the EAEU. Based on Regulation Theory, the paper triangulates data from national, supranational and international organisations, official EAEU documents and reports with insights from 10 expert interviews with policy makers, policy advisers and management consultants. The paper identifies diverging (and sometimes conflicting) interests regarding the relevance and concrete arrangement of industrial cooperation, which has particular implications for smaller member states like Armenia and Belarus.

摘要

在后苏联地区主义取得了二十年的微薄成果之后，欧亚经济联盟（EAEU）充满了希望。但是，关于EAEU的研究主要集中在俄罗斯，并且集中在贸易问题上，这使得小国的观点和发展方面（如EAEU的工业合作议程）未被充分研究。小型国家可能会从向发展性区域主义的转变中获得不成比例的收益，但与此问题相关的挑战也很多。因此，本文在EAEU框架内考察了亚美尼亚和白俄罗斯的工业发展前景。本文基于监管理论，对来自国家，超国家和国际组织的数据，EAEU的官方文件和报告进行了三角剖分，并结合了对政策制定者10次专家访谈的见解，政策顾问和管理顾问。本文确定了在产业合作的相关性和具体安排上存在分歧（有时是冲突）的利益，这对亚美尼亚和白俄罗斯等较小的成员国具有特殊的意义。