ABSTRACT

The Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) came into being in 2015 with the ostensible goal of increasing integration among its member states. An implicit assumption behind this goal was to further trade liberalisation, at least within the bloc, as a means to promote additional trade. This paper assesses the development of the EaEU against this promise. Going beyond an analysis of the dynamics of mutual trade, the main focus of this paper is to understand the EaEU’s institutional processes, examining if the commitments and framework put in place by the EaEU could actually contribute to trade liberalisation. Focusing on the trade policies at the level of the EaEU and the political economy of protectionism, our assessment is not favourable. In particular, the charge that the EaEU remains a geopolitical rather than economic project rings true, as trade liberalisation has been halting in individual member states and across the bloc as a whole. This reality is further illustrated in the external trade policies of the Union, most prominently in trade agreements concluded with Vietnam, Iran, Singapore and Serbia, and relations with other major trade partners. The paper argues that, in line with often overlooked theoretical predictions, the institutional framework of the EaEU is not robust enough to ensure that integration processes actually deliver on their stated objectives.

摘要

欧亚经济联盟（EaEU）于2015年成立，其表面目标是加强其成员国之间的一体化。该目标背后的一个隐含假设是，至少在集团内部进一步进行贸易自由化，以此作为促进其他贸易的手段。本文根据这一承诺评估了EaEU的发展。除了对相互贸易的动态进行分析之外，本文的主要重点是了解EaEU的制度流程，研究EaEU制定的承诺和框架是否真的可以促进贸易自由化。着眼于EaEU级别的贸易政策和贸易保护主义的政治经济学，我们的评估是不利的。特别是，关于EaEU仍然是地缘政治而非经济项目的指控是正确的，由于各个成员国乃至整个欧盟的贸易自由化都在停止。国际电联的对外贸易政策，尤其是与越南，伊朗，新加坡和塞尔维亚签订的贸易协定，以及与其他主要贸易伙伴的关系，都进一步说明了这一现实。该论文认为，根据经常被忽视的理论预测，EaEU的制度框架不够健全，无法确保整合过程能够真正实现其既定目标。