Recent political instabilities in the Middle East have led to strong negative impacts on the tourism sector. The aim of this study is to investigate the extent and the impact of political instability on tourism development in Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI). The impact of previous wars and incidents including the most recent events by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on tourism demand is quantitatively evaluated. Unit roots and structural breaks are detected relating political instabilities with significant tourist declines. A systematic comparison on the effect of terrorist attacks and wars on tourist arrivals is performed by employing a multiple regression model using monthly time series data from January 2003 to September 2018. The analysis revealed stronger negative impact of wars in comparison to terrorist attacks. The novelty of this study lies in its ability to establish that the impacts of war have far reaching consequences that last for at least three consecutive years as compared to short negative effects of terrorist attacks. Our findings imply that political instability, especially wars, leads to large safety concerns in the tourist destinations.

中文翻译：

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“模拟战争和恐怖主义对伊拉克库尔德地区的旅游需求的影响”

中东最近的政治动荡给旅游业带来了严重的负面影响。这项研究的目的是调查伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区（KRI）的政治动荡对旅游业发展的程度和影响。定量评估了先前的战争和事件，包括伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国（ISIS）最近发生的事件对旅游需求的影响。发现与政治动荡有关的单位根源和结构性断裂，以及游客人数大幅下降。通过采用多元回归模型，使用2003年1月至2018年9月的月度时间序列数据，对恐怖袭击和战争对游客的影响进行了系统的比较。分析显示，与恐怖袭击相比，战争的负面影响更大。这项研究的新颖之处在于，它具有以下能力：与恐怖主义袭击的短暂负面影响相比，战争的影响具有持续至少三年的深远影响。我们的发现表明，政治动荡，特别是战争，导致旅游目的地的安全问题日益严重。