We assess the sustainability of external imbalances for EU countries using panel stationarity tests of Current Account (CA) balance-to-GDP ratios and panel cointegration of exports and imports of goods and services, for the period 1970Q1–2015Q4. We find that: i) the country panel is non-stationary; ii) cross-sectional dependence plays an important role; iii) there is non-stationarity of the CA, imports, and exports with cross-sectional panel dependence and multiple structural breaks; iv) however, there is a stable long-run relationship between exports and imports in the panel. Hence, trade imbalances can be less unsustainable but this is not sufficient to make current account imbalances sustainable.

中文翻译：

---

进出口之间的长期关系：欧盟的经常账户可持续性测试

我们使用1970Q1-2015Q4期间的经常账户（CA）余额与GDP比率的面板平稳性测试以及商品和服务进出口的面板协整性，评估了欧盟国家外部失衡的可持续性。我们发现：i）国家小组不是固定的；ii）截面依赖性起着重要作用；iii）CA，进口和出口的不稳定性，具有横断面的依赖性和多个结构性断裂；iv）但是，小组中的进出口之间存在长期稳定的关系。因此，贸易失衡不那么难以维持，但这不足以使经常账户失衡可持续。