This paper uses a comprehensive and detailed bank‐level data set to study how the divergence of central bank balance sheet policy in the US vis‐à‐vis the euro area and Japan would affect the supply of international US dollar loans by global banks. Our empirical findings support the view that the contractionary effect of US monetary normalization on global dollar liquidity would be offset by an expansionary effect from continued supply of US dollar loans by euro area and Japanese banks. The net effect, however, is crucially dependent on the stability of global foreign exchange markets and investor perceptions of the default risks of global banks. Our findings show that there could be a significant contraction of the supply of international US dollar loans if and when the US monetary normalization coincides with a dislocation of the FX swap market and a rise of bank default risks. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and different data sets.

中文翻译：

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不同的货币政策和国际美元信贷：来自银行级别数据的证据

本文使用全面而详细的银行级别数据集来研究美国中央银行资产负债表政策与欧元区和日本之间的差异如何影响全球银行提供国际美元贷款的情况。我们的经验发现支持这样的观点，即欧元区和日本银行持续提供美元贷款会产生扩张效应，从而抵消了美国货币正常化对全球美元流动性的收缩效应。但是，净效果至关重要地取决于全球外汇市场的稳定性以及投资者对全球银行违约风险的看法。我们的研究结果表明，如果当美国的货币正常化与外汇掉期市场的混乱以及银行违约风险的上升同时发生时，国际美元贷款的供应可能会大大收缩。我们的结果对于替代模型规范和不同数据集具有鲁棒性。