This article explores the links between imported trade relationships, their duration and tariff rates. We use survival analysis to investigate how the probability of trade relationship survival is affected by the difference in the tariff rates. We use the ASEAN+6 as the basis of our report and consider a total of 89 trading partners for manufactured goods from 1996 to 2011. Our findings are as follows. First, low‐tariff trade survives longer than high‐tariff trade of manufactured goods. Second, we find a significantly negative correlation between tariff rates and duration, and regional trade agreements help prolong the length of trade relationships. Third, the hazard ratios of intraregional differentiated goods and the parts and components trade are lower. We have also obtained robust results for distinct specifications through consideration of production networks and Rauch's product classification. Finally, we believe that these findings could be used as a reference for other economic organizations working toward the diminution of tariff rates.

中文翻译：

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关税率对贸易关系生存的可能性的影响：来自东盟+6制成品的证据

本文探讨了进口贸易关系，持续时间和关税税率之间的联系。我们使用生存分析来调查关税率差异如何影响贸易关系生存的可能性。我们使用ASEAN + 6作为报告的基础，并考虑了1996年至2011年间总共89个制成品贸易伙伴。我们的发现如下。首先，低关税贸易比制成品的高关税贸易生存时间更长。其次，我们发现关税税率与期限之间存在显着的负相关性，区域贸易协定有助于延长贸易关系的时长。第三，区域内差异化商品和零部件贸易的风险比率较低。通过考虑生产网络和劳赫的产品分类，我们还获得了针对不同规格的可靠结果。最后，我们相信这些发现可以为其他致力于降低关税率的经济组织提供参考。