This paper examines the financing of disaster risk management. Future climate and disaster risks are predicted to impose increasing financial pressure on the governments of low‐lying atoll nations. The aftermath of a disaster, such as a cyclone, requires financial means for quick response and recovery. We quantify the appropriate levels of financial support for expected disasters in Tuvalu and Kiribati by building on the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI)‐calculated likely costs for disasters. To these, we add estimates of the potential effects of distant cyclones, droughts, sea‐level rise, climate change and large‐scale disaster shocks as they are predicted to affect low‐lying atoll islands. The present paper focuses on the potential contribution of the sovereign wealth funds (SWF) of Tuvalu and Kiribati in reducing reliance on foreign aid for ex‐post disaster risk management. We forecast the future size of SWF using Monte Carlo simulations. We examine the long‐term sustainability of SWF and the feasibility of extending their mandate for disaster recovery.

中文翻译：

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环礁岛气候和灾害抗灾力的可持续融资：图瓦卢和基里巴斯的证据

本文研究了灾害风险管理的融资。预计未来的气候和灾难风险将对低洼环礁国家的政府施加越来越大的财务压力。诸如飓风之类的灾难的后果需要财务手段来快速响应和恢复。我们根据太平洋巨灾风险评估和融资计划，量化对图瓦卢和基里巴斯的预期灾害的适当财政支持水平（PCRAFI）-计算了灾难可能造成的损失。此外，我们还估计了遥远的气旋，干旱，海平面上升，气候变化和大规模灾害冲击的潜在影响，因为它们预计会影响低环礁岛。本文着重于图瓦卢和基里巴斯的主权财富基金（SWF）在减少对事后灾害风险管理的外国援助方面的潜在贡献。我们使用蒙特卡洛模拟预测SWF的未来规模。我们研究了SWF的长期可持续性以及扩展其灾难恢复任务的可行性。