Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is ripping around most of the world, but not in Africa; at least, not yet. At the same time, the policy response is remarkably uniform: most of sub-Saharan Africa went into lockdown from the second week in March. What happens next for the pandemic across Africa is uncertain, but the March lockdowns are unlikely to have contained the epidemic by themselves.What is clear is that the combination of domestic lockdowns and the spill-over from the global recession means immediate and severe hardship. This paper looks beyond the public health aspects of the pandemic to examine the medium-term macroeconomic adjustment challenge confronting domestic policy-makers and international donors. We combine epidemiological and macroeconomic models to calibrate the scale of the combined shock to a representative low-income African economy and to show how alternative policy options for slowing transmission of COVID-19 impact on public revenue, and on GDP in the short run, and hence shape the path to recovery. Noting that the first lockdown, however costly, does not by itself eliminate the likelihood of a re-emergence of the epidemic, we then frame the agenda for key macroeconomic and public finance policies to sustain recovery, growth, and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa.The initial hit to consumption will be up to one-third. All the public policy options are grim. International donor finance of US$40–50 billion, together with domestic reform to accelerate recovery, would make a significant difference to the outlook for poverty.

中文翻译：

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封锁之后：撒哈拉以南非洲针对COVID-19大流行的宏观经济调整

摘要

COVID-19大流行病正在全世界大部分地区肆虐，但在非洲却没有。至少还没有。同时，政策反应非常一致：撒哈拉以南非洲大部分地区从3月的第二周开始进入封锁状态。整个非洲大流行接下来会发生什么尚不确定，但3月份的封锁可能不会单独遏制这一流行。显然，国内封锁和全球经济衰退的溢出相结合，意味着立即和严重的困难。本文从大流行的公共卫生问题出发，考察了国内政策制定者和国际捐助者面临的中期宏观经济调整挑战。我们结合了流行病学模型和宏观经济模型，以校准对具有代表性的低收入非洲经济造成的综合打击的规模，并显示出减缓COVID-19传播的替代性政策选择如何在短期内对公共收入和GDP产生影响，以及从而塑造恢复的道路。注意到首次封锁，尽管代价高昂，但本身并不能消除再次流行的可能性，然后我们制定了重要的宏观经济和公共财政政策议程，以维持撒哈拉以南地区的复苏，增长和减贫非洲：最初对消费的打击将高达三分之一。所有公共政策选择都是严峻的。400亿至500亿美元的国际捐助者资金，加上为加速复苏而进行的国内改革，将对贫困前景产生重大影响。