Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. Yet, despite the acceleration in demographic shifts in the past decade, advanced economies experienced markedly different trajectories in overall labor force participation rates and the workforce attachment of men and women. Using a cohort-based model of labor force participation for 17 advanced economies estimated over the 1985{2016 period, we document a significant role of common patterns of participation over the life cycle and shifts in these patterns across generations for aggregate labor supply, especially in the case of women. The entry of new cohorts of women led to upward shifts in the age participation profile, boosting aggregate participation rates. However, this process plateaued in most advanced economies, with signs of reversal in some. Using the model's results to forecast future participation trends, we project sizable declines in aggregate participation rates over the next three decades due to the aging of the population. Illustrative simulations show that implementing policies encouraging labor supply can help attenuate but may not fully offset demographic pressures.

中文翻译：

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基于队列的发达经济体劳动力参与度分析

发达经济体正处于人口的主要转变之中，老年人的数量相对于劳动年龄人口急剧增加。然而，尽管在过去十年中人口结构变化加速，发达经济体在总体劳动力参与率和男女劳动力依存度方面经历了明显不同的轨迹。我们使用基于队列的1985 {2016年间估计的17个发达经济体的劳动力参与模型，证明了参与模式在整个生命周期中的重要作用，以及这些模式在世代之间的变化对总的劳动力供给尤其是在女人的情况。新的女性群体的加入导致年龄参与状况的上升，从而提高了总参与率。然而，在大多数发达经济体中，这一过程处于停滞状态，有一些出现逆转的迹象。使用模型的结果预测未来的参与趋势，我们预计由于人口老龄化，未来三十年总参与率将大幅下降。说明性的模拟表明，实施鼓励劳动力供应的政策有助于减轻压力，但可能无法完全抵消人口压力。