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International spillover effects of U.S. tax reforms: evidence from Germany
Oxford Economic Papers ( IF 1.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-20 , DOI: 10.1093/oep/gpaa022
Désirée I Christofzik 1 , Steffen Elstner 2
Affiliation  

This paper explores the international transmission of U.S. tax shocks and provides evidence for the German economy. Using structural vector autoregressions, we find that after a U.S. tax cut, German GDP increases moderately. While higher U.S. demand stimulates German exports, a deterioration of price competitiveness lowers this positive growth impulse. The current account increases significantly. Surprisingly, German prices fall as domestic companies reduce unit labor costs. The resulting increase of the real interest rate dampens domestic demand. German tax policy shows an opposite reaction to U.S. tax policy. The latter result, however, is driven by the decade of the 1970s. We find that significant changes in the transmission channels arise by distinguishing between different types of U.S. tax reforms. In particular, in contrast to U.S. personal income tax reforms, changes in the corporate income tax cause a depreciation of the German real effective exchange rate.

中文翻译:

美国税制改革的国际溢出效应:德国的证据

本文探讨了美国税收冲击的国际传导,并为德国经济提供了证据。使用结构向量自回归,我们发现美国减税后,德国GDP适度增长。尽管更高的美国需求刺激了德国的出口,但价格竞争力的恶化降低了这种积极的增长动力。经常账户显着增加。出乎意料的是,德国价格下跌,因为国内公司减少了单位人工成本。实际利率的上升抑制了国内需求。德国的税收政策对美国的税收政策表现出相反的反应。然而,后者的结果是由1970年代的十年驱动的。我们发现,通过区分不同类型的美国税制改革,会在传输渠道中产生重大变化。特别是与美国相反
更新日期:2020-07-20
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