Abstract This paper develops a framework using Monte Carlo simulation to examine risk/return properties of intra-industry product portfolio composition and diversification. We use product-level data covering all Swedish sales of alcoholic beverages to describe the risk profiles of wholesalers and how they are affected by actual and hypothetical changes to product portfolios. Using a large number of counterfactual portfolios we quantify the diversification benefits of different product portfolio compositions. In this market the most important reductions in variability come from focusing on domestic products and from focusing on product categories that have low variability. The number of products also has a large effect in the simulations, moving from a portfolio of 10 products to one of 20 products cuts standard deviation of cash flows in relation to mean cash flows by more than half. The concentration of import origins plays a minor quantitative role on risk/return profiles in this market.

中文翻译：

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一个篮子里的所有瓶子？评估行业内多元化对风险的影响

摘要 本文开发了一个使用蒙特卡罗模拟的框架来检查行业内产品组合构成和多样化的风险/回报特性。我们使用涵盖所有瑞典酒精饮料销售的产品级数据来描述批发商的风险状况以及他们如何受到产品组合的实际和假设变化的影响。使用大量反事实组合，我们量化了不同产品组合组合的多样化优势。在这个市场中，最重要的减少可变性来自关注国内产品和关注具有低可变性的产品类别。产品的数量在模拟中也有很大的影响，从 10 种产品组合到 20 种产品中的一种，现金流量相对于平均现金流量的标准差减少了一半以上。进口原产地的集中度对该市场的风险/回报状况的定量影响很小。