We analyze the dynamics of dialect loss in a cluster of villages in rural northern Russia based on a corpus of transcribed interviews, the Ustja River Basin Corpus. Eleven phonological and morphological variables are analyzed across 33 speakers born between 1922 and 1996 in a series of logistic regression models. We propose three characteristics for a comparison of the rate of loss of different variables: initial level, steepness, and turning point. We show that the dynamics of loss differs significantly across variables and discuss possible reasons for such differences, including perceptual salience, initial variation in the dialect, and convergence with regionally or socially defined varieties of Russian. In conclusion, we discuss the pros and cons of logistic regression as an approach to quantitative modeling of dialect loss. Our paper contributes to the study and documentation of Russian dialects, most of which are on the verge of extinction.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯北部的方言损失：跨变量建模变化

我们根据转录的采访语料库，即乌斯季亚河流域语料库，分析了俄罗斯北部农村地区方言丢失的动态。在一系列逻辑回归模型中分析了 1922 年至 1996 年间出生的 33 位说话者的 11 个语音和形态变量。我们提出了三个特征来比较不同变量的损失率：初始水平、陡度和转折点。我们表明，损失的动态在变量之间存在显着差异，并讨论了造成这种差异的可能原因，包括感知显着性、方言的初始变化以及与区域或社会定义的俄语变体的融合。总之，我们讨论了逻辑回归作为方言损失定量建模方法的优缺点。