This study investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis in South Korea. We measure the overall welfare effect by examining their labor market activities, family formation, and household finances. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and asset building among men who graduated during the recession. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation resulted in an increase in childbearing. We also find evidence that family provides a risk-sharing mechanism for recession graduates. Our results suggest that labor market entry in a large-scale recession has prolonged effects on a young worker’s life course even after the penalties in the labor market have disappeared.

本研究通过比较1997-1998年韩国亚洲金融危机之前，之中和之后从大学毕业的队列研究了初始劳动力市场状况的长期影响。我们通过检查他们的劳动力市场活动，家庭组成和家庭财务状况来衡量总体福利影响。使用来自韩国劳工和收入小组研究的20次浪潮的数据，我们发现，在经济衰退期间毕业的男性中，就业，收入，婚姻，生育率和资产积累的数量持续且持续减少。对于妇女而言，毕业时的有限工作机会导致生育人数增加。我们还发现有证据表明，家庭为经济衰退的毕业生提供了分担风险的机制。