We apply a modified gravity model to Japanese municipal-level migration and demographic data to examine the drivers of domestic migration. We focus on the human capital stock of municipalities, measured by the share of university graduates in the municipal population, and human capital related variable, identified as a shortage rate of nursery school capacity. Our results reveal the migration pattern from municipalities with low to high human capital stock or to better conditions. Moreover, the positive impact of human capital stock is larger for age groups active in the labor force. We discuss the implications of our empirical findings for sustainable regional development in aging societies with declining populations.

我们将改良的引力模型应用于日本市政级移民和人口数据，以研究国内移民的驱动因素。我们关注的是市政当局的人力资本存量（通过大学毕业生在市政人口中所占的比例来衡量）以及与人力资本有关的变量（被确定为托儿所容量的短缺率）。我们的结果揭示了从人力资本存量低到较高或条件更好的城市的迁移模式。此外，人力资本存量的积极影响对活跃于劳动力市场的年龄组更大。我们讨论了实证研究结果对人口下降的老龄化社会中可持续地区发展的意义。