In this study, we explore the effects of regional exposure to manufacturing imports and exports on candidates and voters in national elections through panel data analyses, dealing with the possible endogeneity issues. We show that candidates tailor their stances toward trade policy in response to changes in local trade exposure. Increased manufacturing exports drive candidates to support relatively open trade policies; however, increased manufacturing imports do not influence candidates’ stances on trade policy. We also find that changes in local trade exposure influence citizens’ voting behavior. In districts with increased exports of manufacturing products, voters tend to cast ballots for parties that pledge to promote a free trade agreement as opposed to those that adopt a cautious attitude toward it. In districts that experience increased imports of manufacturing products, voters tend to support parties that are clearly opposed to establishing it. The economic issues related to international trade appear to be important to both candidates and voters in elections.

在这项研究中，我们通过面板数据分析，探讨了可能发生的内生性问题，通过区域数据分析了制造业进出口对地区选举中候选人和选民的影响。我们表明，候选人会根据当地贸易风险的变化调整贸易政策立场。制造业出口增加促使候选人支持相对开放的贸易政策；但是，增加的制造业进口不会影响候选人的贸易政策立场。我们还发现，当地贸易风险的变化会影响公民的投票行为。在制造业产品出口增加的地区，选民们倾向于为那些承诺促进自由贸易协定的政党投票，而不是那些持谨慎态度的政党。在制造业产品进口增加的地区，选民倾向于支持明显反对建立这种产品的政党。在选举中，与国际贸易有关的经济问题对候选人和选民似乎都很重要。